Twitter is an amazing product. It lets us guess the depth of thought of a populace:
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In this case, the depth is easily rivaled by the store-bought kiddie-pool.
First, do people comprehend what a no-fly zone entails? NATO would shoot down Russian planes.
No-fly zones only work when there is a disparity of force. Picture the following scenario:
NATO establishes a no-fly zone. After some bluster, Russia sends its planes into the no-fly zone. At that point, either Russia calls NATO's bluff, or NATO shoots down Russian military aircraft.
What happens next? Depends on Putin's patience and assessment of the situation:
- Russia withdraws its air cover from Ukraine. This could spell defeat for its ground forces, especially if Ukrainian planes are still permitted to fly and strike ground targets.
- Russia levels the playing field and shoots down NATO aircraft or SAM sites within Ukraine. Per NATO's article 5, it could be construed as an attack by Russia on a NATO member state. NATO may retaliate with attacks on forward air bases in Ukraine. Or it may strike air bases in Russia...
- Russia preemptively strikes NATO air bases in Poland, the Baltic states, or Moldova. NATO ground forces invade Ukraine with the objective of pushing Russian forces back into Russia.
If the Russians repel the NATO forces from Ukraine, NATO commanders become more nervous the closer they reach the Ukrainian border. Will the Russian advance be satisfied merely repelling NATO? Or will it seek territorial concessions to solidify its position?
Conversely, if NATO has the Russians in retreat, Russian commanders may wonder how far NATO may push into Russia. Part of the stated Russian motive for invading Ukraine is fears over Ukraine becoming a member of NATO. From the Russian perspective, since the fall of the USSR, Russia has seen Warsaw Pact nations join NATO. Some eastern European nations are cordial with Russia, but many have citizens who remember their status as puppet states of the Soviet Union, and have no desire to return to that state. Much of the USSR's "buffer" with the West is gone. Historically, Russia has suffered the consequences of hostile nations on their borders. It's worse if they face hostile nations backed up by alliance that spans the Atlantic Ocean.
Russia's very survival as a nation may depend on its capacity to withstand an invasion by NATO. In the 1940s, the Wehrmacht reached the gates of Moscow. At the time, Stalin was able to resist and subsequently repel the Wehrmacht by relocating industry key to the Soviet war effort to the other side of the Ural mountains. Unlike the Germans of the 1940s, a well-supplied NATO force would not be deterred by the Russian winter, and its air power could easily reach the other side of the Urals.
Let's put ourselves in the position of the Russian president in such a scenario. Forces advancing on Moscow. Territory under NATO control. A war crimes tribunal almost certainly in your future. A demoralized army that didn't have much incentive to fight in the first place. What do you have to lose? Detonate a tactical nuclear weapon above the advancing forces. But just like potato chips, you can't stop at just one. Even if you can, what guarantees does the other side have that you'll stop? Let's be generous and say NATO reciprocates with a proportional response. What if one of their nukes misses a military target and hits a civilian one? What if it's one of ours? This is where the command and control begins to break down. All it takes is a single NATO or Russian commander with vengeance on the mind to deliberately target a civilian target. At that point, we will have crossed the Rubicon into total war: Everything's fair game.
Invert the scenario: The Russians repel NATO from Ukraine, and pursue them back across the borders into the Baltic states. Or Moldova. Or Poland. Putin and his military staff, seeing those countries as former Soviet satellites simply being brought back into the fold, might stop with capturing them. But what about what was East Germany? How much of Europe would NATO tolerate using before detonating a tactical nuke above advancing Russian forces? Reciprocal Russian response followed by escalation. Again, the result is the same.
Now let's talk about nuclear war. An entire generation has grown up far more concerned about global warming. Or nuclear terrorism. Full-scale nuclear conflict? Those of us from the Baby Boomers and Generation X remember the Cold War. When we watched The Day After or Threads, it wasn't just some movie about an unlikely scenario. It was a nightmare scenario that we lived with daily. It wasn't some intangible threat, it was very real. In 1986, we got a glimpse into the affects from nuclear contamination when Reactor #4 exploded at Chernobyl. Now imagine that happening everywhere: Every piece of real estate on the planet that's worth anything irradiated. Nowhere to flee to. No safe haven. No designated contaminated zones. Not to mention little to no functioning governments, public order, and sanitation. No electricity, gas, or running water. And, after some high-altitude nuclear detonations, an electromagnetic pulse that fries most unshielded electronics, including the ignition systems of most fuel-injected engines. Most people who survive the exchange should plan on human- or animal-power transportation for getting around for months if not years afterward.
Immediate effects? If you are too close or are downwind from the explosion, your choices are being vaporized by a fireball the temperature of the surface of the sun, burned by heat rays, physical trauma from the blast wave, or agonizing death due to radiation poisoning from either the detonation or the subsequent fallout. Hospitals that are still standing will be overwhelmed, and no amount of mask-wearing or remaining indoors will keep you from unwittingly contributing to the problem.
Am I getting through to you who think a no-fly zone is something NATO could do without severe consequences?. Just think of all the things you'll miss. Starbucks. Twitter. Facebook. A first-world existence. If you're lucky enough to survive, your life will forever be changed.
